JazzRoc versus “Chemtrails”

Contrail Facts and “Chemtrail” Fictions

Posts Tagged ‘patrick minnis

Conspiracy Theories

with 12 comments



Don’t forget my other pages, links and comments are one click away at the top right of the page… 


Conspiracy theories find menace in contrails


A new conspiracy theory sweeping the Internet and radio talk shows has set parts of the federal government on edge.

The theory: The white lines of condensed water vapor that jets leave in the sky, called contrails, are actually a toxic substance the government deliberately sprays on an unsuspecting populace.

Federal bureaucracies have gotten thousands of phone calls, e-mails and letters in recent years from people demanding to know what is being sprayed and why. Some of the missives are threatening.

It’s impossible to tell how many supporters these ideas have attracted, but the people who believe them say they’re tired of getting the brush-off from officials. And they’re tired of health problems they blame on “spraying.”

“This is blatant. This is in your face,” says Philip Marie Sr., a retired nuclear quality engineer from Bartlett, N.H., who says the sky above his quiet town is often crisscrossed with “spray” trails.

“No one will address it,” he says. “Everyone stonewalls this thing.”

The situation Marie and others describe is straight out of The X-Files. He and others report one day looking up at the sky and realizing that they were seeing abnormal contrails: contrails that lingered and spread into wispy clouds, multiple contrails arranged in tick-tack-toe-like grids or parallel lines, contrails being laid down by white planes without registration numbers.


Believers call these tracks “chemtrails.” They say they don’t know why the chemicals are being dropped, but that doesn’t stop them from speculating. Many guess that the federal government is trying to slow global warming with compounds that reflect sunlight into the sky. Some propose more ominous theories, such as a government campaign to weed out the old and sick.

Exasperated by persistent questions, the Environmental Protection Agency, NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration joined forces last fall to publish a fact sheet explaining the science of contrail formation. A few months earlier, the Air Force had put out its own fact sheet, which tries to refute its opponents’ arguments point by point.

“If you try to pin these people down and refute things, it’s, ‘Well, you’re just part of the conspiracy,’ ” says atmospheric scientist Patrick Minnis of NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va. “Logic is not exactly a real selling point for most of them.”


Nothing is “out there” except water vapor and ice crystals, say irritated scientists who study contrails. Some, such as Minnis, are outraged enough by the claims of chemtrail believers that they have trolled Internet chat rooms to correct misinformation or have gotten into arguments with callers.

“Conspiracy nonsense,” snorts Kenneth Sassen, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Utah. “These things are at 30,000 to 40,000 feet in the atmosphere. They’re tiny particles of ice. They’re not going to affect anyone.”

The cloud-forming contrails that conspiracy theorists find so ominous are “perfectly natural,” Minnis says. The odd grid and parallel-line patterns are easily explained as contrails blown together by the wind, scientists say.





Normal contrails DO form in fairly high humidity. When formed in 100% humidity they will NEVER disappear. If the humidity of that particular stratospheric layer is REDUCED, then in exact proportion the life of that trail will be reduced. This CAN happen; the layer can be lifted from beneath by a rising CUMULUS cloud in the troposphere. But the typical way they disappear is that LOCAL to the trail, the humidity has already been increased by the processes forming the trail: over time the increased humidity “leaks” away from the locality by gaseous diffusion, allowing the trail (of ice crystals) to sublime back into water vapor. Otherwise generally over time, layers FALL, COOL, humidity rises, trails get bigger. 


There is a new and ominous controversy concerning aircraft contrails and their supposed ill-effects. People with little or no scientific understanding are whipping up a furore over – nothing. This tends to leave all the real ills of the world unattended, and let’s face it, those we know of already are too great and too many to be sufferable. But how much worse it is when the (already!) deluded dream up new imaginary ills! With too much on our plates already, we are forced to concern ourselves with additional spurious delusions which, if they were to be taken seriously, would diminish our capacity to adapt to change, and ultimately to survive the upcoming onslaught.


A typical passenger transport plane (medium haul) burns 30 tons of fuel and thus unloads 30 tons of ice and 20 tons of gaseous oxides (mostly carbon dioxide) into the stratosphere every trip it makes.


The troposphere contains about 80% of the atmosphere and is the part of the atmosphere in which we live, and make weather observations. In this layer, average temperatures decrease with height. This is known as adiabatic cooling, i.e. a change in temperature caused by a decrease in pressure. Even so, it is still more prone to vertical mixing by convective and turbulent transfer, than other parts of the atmosphere. These vertical motions and the abundance of water vapour make it the home of all important weather phenomena. It is turbulent and unstable because it is at its warmest at its base. The troposphere’s thermal profile is largely the result of the heating of the Earth’s surface by incoming solar radiation. Heat is then transferred up through the troposphere by a combination of convective and turbulent transfer.


This is in direct contrast with the stratosphere, where warming is the result of the direct absorption of solar radiation. It is at its coldest at its base, and is stable and non-turbulent. If you have ever observed (or been in) a house fire, and looked up at the ceiling of a room with a fire in it, there you can see that the behaviour of the air is similar: the hottest part of the fire is against the ceiling, and the layers of air beneath (at decreasing temperatures) are stratified and somewhat mysteriously stable.

The troposphere is around 16 km high at the equator, with the temperature at the tropopause around –80 °C. At the poles, the troposphere reaches a height of around 8 km, with the temperature of the tropopause around –40 °C in summer and –60 °C in winter.


Annual passenger jet aircraft fuel consumption is estimated to be 300 million tons. That may seem a lot, but it’s a CUBE with sides a hundred yards long. in actual fact.


The weight of the atmosphere is 5.25 petatonnes.


One can see (using a quick calculation) that, as a proportion of the weight of the atmosphere, the burnt fuel comprises FIVE MILLIONTHS OF A PER CENT. It would take 200,000 years to half-fill the atmosphere with aircraft exhaust emissions at their present rate!

Now, the water, the gaseous oxides and sulphates may have a hardly appreciable effect on Global Warming (they are only 3.5% of anthropogenic combustion), but are as NOTHING when compared with the Earth’s volcanoes.

There are 1,500 active volcanoes on land and maybe TEN THOUSAND active volcanoes under the sea. Beneath are a few links:


The term “active” means “constantly emitting steam, gases, magma, and ash”. It is hard to quantify the total emitted by the land volcanoes, but let us assume they average a million tons of each per year. That will give us fifteen hundred million tons of steam, fifteen hundred million tons of gases, fifteen hundred million tons of magma, fifteen hundred million tons of ash.

“Hey”, you might say, “aren’t you making free with all those hundred millions of tons?” – and I would answer you thus: “A million tons of rock makes a cone 243 feet high. So I’m suggesting that the annual volcanic production of rock is equivalent to fifteen hundred of these rock cones. See what I mean?”

To put that estimate into perspective, the largest known eruption, Tambora, put 200 million tons of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere in a single event!


Getting back to the point, it can be reasonably argued that contrails are at least FIFTEEN TIMES LESS IMPORTANT THAN VOLCANOES when it comes to having an effect on our atmosphere, whether warming it or cooling it…

So forget ALL of this bullfish about contrails/chemtrails. Yadda barium, yadda aluminum, yadda cooling, yadda dimming, yadda morgellons, yadda toxins……..You can bet your boots that anyone who advocates this idea is an ignorant dupe, with NO IDEA of the magnitude of the Earth and the events that truly moderate its climate.


Science on Trails

leave a comment »



Don’t forget my other pages, links and comments are one click away at the top right of the page… 



USAF – “Contrails can remain visible for VERY LONG PERIODS OF TIME with the lifetime a function of the temperature, humidity, winds, and aircraft exhaust characteristics.”
WIKI – “Observation and scientific analysis of contrails, and their duration, date back to at least 1953.”
EPA – contrails can last for hours and GROW IN SIZE by taking water from the surrounding atmosphere. The trails spread due to “air turbulence created by the passage of other aircraft, differences in wind speed along the flight track, and possibly through effects of solar heating” – CSI (started by Carl Sagan and Isaac Asimov)
John Day, meteorologist – “Contrail formation, depends on the relative humidity of the atmosphere – the ratio of what is to what could be at a particular temperature. When relative humidity is low, contrails dissipate within seconds. But when relative humidity is high, especially at the subzero temperatures of the upper atmosphere, the addition of even a tiny amount of water vapor acts as a catalyst. Under these conditions, contrails may linger and spread to cover the whole sky. …At length, Day extracted from his bookshelf a well-thumbed edition of Peterson’s Field Guide to Clouds and Weather, which he co-authored in 1991 (a good 10 years before chemtrails became widely discussed), turned to the section on contrails, and pointed to a photograph of a thick, white plume–a plume that looked for all the world like a chemtrail…” – http://wweek.com/flatfiles/News1982.html
Patrick Minnis of NASA’s Langley Research Center *- “If you try to pin these people down and refute things, it’s, ‘Well, you’re just part of the conspiracy’ … Logic is not exactly a real selling point for most of them. The cloud-forming contrails that conspiracy theorists find so ominous are perfectly natural” – http://usatoday.com/usatonline/20010307/3117139s.htm


* Dr. Minnis’s career is outlined in “Penrod”: https://jazzroc.wordpress.com/2008/10/27/26-penrod/
NMSR Reports, Vol. 5, No. 12, December 1999 – “In summary, there is no evidence that these “chemtrails” are other than expected, normal contrails from jet aircraft that vary in their shapes, duration, and general presentation based on prevailing weather conditions. That is not to say that there could not be an occasional, purposeful experimental release of, say, high altitude barium for standard wind tracking experiments. There could also be other related experiments that occur from time-to-time which release agents into the atmosphere. However, not one single picture that was presented as evidence indicates other than normal contrail formation.”


“The variation in presentation is explained by the tropospheric conditions and, to some extent, the positioning of aircraft engines. When the troposphere experiences a relatively stable, supersaturated condition (water vapor in excess of 100% humidity without condensation), then any disturbance that causes formation of ice crystals provides nucleation surfaces for the supersaturated moisture to condense upon. When a jet engine burns its fuel, the major byproduct is water vapor. When the exhaust passes over the rear stabilizer of an aircraft, the tips or ends of the stabilizer cause the exhaust to expand rapidly. When it does, the temperature decreases rapidly within a turbulent flow, and ice crystal formation is forced.


Generally, this makes it look as if the jet were spraying a cloud from the ends of the stabilizer. If the atmosphere is not at saturation, the contrail will not persist. The formed ice crystals will sublimate into the surrounding atmosphere. Hence, the appearance of a short, well formed vapor trail. If the water content is very low, then no discernible contrail will form at all. All the exhaust water will be absorbed by the atmosphere before there is time to form ice crystals.
If the atmospheric water content is not consistent with altitude (picture atmospheric “waves” of high water vapor content below a layer of low water vapor content much like waves on the ocean), then a jet will alternately pass through air that allows contrail formation and air that does not.
This gives the appearance of a dashed line if the plane is flying at, or near the perpendicular to the waves. If the atmosphere is highly supersaturated, then the formed ice crystals may act as nucleation centers for a continual spreading of the contrail. In other words, the contrail actually causes the supersaturated moisture to condense, spreading out from its original path. This causes the formation of a cirrostratus cloud structure, far in excess of what would occur from a simple contrail.”


One other phenomenon observed is the formation of contrails off wing surfaces along with the engine exhaust contrails. This can be caused when the air is highly supersaturated and the expansion of the air coming off of the wing surface is sufficient to cause ice crystallization. In this case, it appears that the whole plane is leaving a trail. This can often be observed by a passenger flying in a commercial airplane when entering cold, supersaturated air, particularly in the winter when close to a storm front.”
M. Kim Johnson, Physicist – “There were no pictures or evidence that indicated anything other than the above contrail formation phenomena. Anecdotal stories of persons getting sick after contrails from obviously supersaturated tropospheric conditions lend no basis for belief that there are chemicals or biological agents being released. This type of story provides as much credence to “chemtrails” as does the belief that drinking milk is causally linked to heroin addiction. (Almost all heroin addicts in the US drank milk as children.)”



“those in power crimes against humanity” – Those in power normally commit their crimes against anyone who threatens them – closest first.

“google these” – Done that, have t-shirt.

“I get ill, I feel nauseous and get disoriented from them” – Illness, nausea and disorientation are more often the consequences of the western diet and stress levels.

“UFO’s hovering close proximity to trails” – are more likely to be PLASTIC BAGS borne aloft. You don’t see’em elsewhere because you’re ONLY looking for trails.

“Los Angeles defiantly purposeful” – Isn’t one of the LARGEST AIRPORTS IN THE WORLD (LAX) NEARBY?

“turn off/on same paths” – Contrails through layers of differing humidities.

“above and in clouds” – Where clouds are there is MORE WATER.

“clouds dissipate/spread out/NO RAIN” – Stratospheric clouds will go OVER THE HORIZON before they have fallen and warmed sufficiently to cause rain.


“dissipate/fall to earth/city/fog” – SEA MIST, AUTO SMOG. I’VE BEEN THERE TOO.

“watching for years now” – YEAH, ME TOO.

“Other jets fly close in altitude and areas, with rapidly dissipating trails” – You are SEVEN MILES BENEATH and are UNABLE TO DISTINGUISH INVISIBLE STRATOSPHERIC LAYERS WITH DIFFERING HUMIDITIES FROM BENEATH.

“(other) trails spread into a web covering the entire sky from an operation” – ARE THE CONSEQUENCE OF NORMAL PASSENGER SHUTTLE ROUTES AT ANGLES TO EACH OTHER.

“Jets should not be making turns” – YOU CANNOT BE SERIOUS.



“Go ahead and post your theories” – this is known science as in http://www.contrailscience.com

“if you really are a government plant, go suck a chemtrail” – No. I’m an educated Welshman who despises charlatans.

“We would still think the world was flat if we listened to your method of reasoning” – so you’re plainly anti-science, then?

“Everyone SHOULD be questioning and exploring what’s going on (unless of course you have an agenda to obfuscate the truth!)” – then how come you haven’t managed to find a good science textbook?

“It’s counter productive to denounce people’s ideas on the basis that you (condescendingly I might add) believe they are unsure or uneducated” – There’s ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT IN MY MIND that you are EITHER uneducated OR evil. More likely uneducated, yet literate enough to indulge yourself in sophistry. There’s NOTHING productive about your pseudo-science.

“In my mind there has not yet been a convincing explanation as to what the Chemtrails are” – so you’re plainly anti-science, then?

“you are suggesting that it is evil to explore any theory unless you are sure it’s true” – I am suggesting that it is EVIL to PROMULGATE any theory unless you are SURE it’s true. Your MISDIRECTION?

“You are also implying that since you are sure of your explanation” – IT’S IN ANY SCIENCE TEXTBOOK COVERING THE ATMOSPHERE.

“everyone else’s is wrong and evil” – No, let’s be particular. YOURS is wrong and evil.

“That reasoning goes against the advancement of science and progress” – YOUR reasoning goes against the advancement of science and progress.




 “what you’re made of” – Hi, SKYWITLESS, here you are arguing with me on someone else’s site. You can’t do that on your own site because YOU HAVE BLOCKED ME. You appear to be made of hypocrisy.

“trails” APPEAR TO BE “turned on and off” because THE PLANE FLIES “through layers of differing humidities” – Were you to attempt to PROPERLY UNDERSTAND THE ATMOSPHERE, you would soon see that that way the stratospheric layers slide over each other without intermixing GUARANTEES that they will posses DIFFERENT HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES. A CLUE – sometimes the boundaries between layers ARE turbulent, and you will SEE CIRRUS APPEAR. Best done when sunning yourself on a beach.

“Show us one video that supports” – NO VIDEO! TRY READING!


“NWO forces cannot control the free-will of people” – YOU ARE PRAYING.

“They are scared to death of the people becoming united in one mindset and purpose” – YOU ARE CHANTING.

“A people like this can defeat the NWO forces” – YOU ARE INTONING.

“This is why they send people like jazzroc to make noise and try and sow confusion” – AND NOW YOU ARE LYING.

“but just laugh at people like jazzroc and send them on their way” – Yes, tell others not to think. Liar. Hypocrite. Coward.



Hi ludosophist, as you know anyone can say anything about chemtrails; however video evidence of jets spraying chemtrails is much stronger than the words of anyone who says that chemtrails don’t exist. If you don’t believe that chemtrails are being sprayed, then how do you explain the numerous videos which show them being turned on and off? Do you also agree with Jazzroc’s explanation of how this happens? If you don’t want to call them chemtrails, then what do you want to call them?

They key here is rational weighing of evidence. The off/on thing is the only loose end Jazz didn’t tackle, or maybe I skipped that part accidentally.

(He did.)
If you could zoom in to a nozzle device, and actually show that, it would be evidence. Personally, considering the history of nasty shit the government has done (assasinations, depleted uranium, etc.) I don’t rule it out, but after learning more about relative humidity distribution I have to weight that they’re more likely contrails.
Perhaps one day I will be able to zoom in and capture the spray nozzles. At this time however, I have numerous videos showing jets turning the chemtrail spray on and off. Take a look at the videos and tell me if you still think the on/off action is a result of relative humidity distribution. If you still think that these are normal contrails can you find any reputable books that explain how contrails can do such a thing?

Here’s my rationale:
1) It’s plausible, there is an evil oligarchy with a lot of power that does stuff like this on smaller scales.
2) It maybe not be possible because you can’t burn barium into an aerosol.
3) P(god exists) < P(Chemtrails) < P(Bin Ladin Dead)
4) Argentina has few of these trails to speak of because there is little commercial airflight and no active airforce. Or, the NWO wants to reserve it for recreation. Either way, I’m moving there.
5) Hyper-inflation, food shortages.

Skywitness, if you just video the sun rising in the East, and setting in the West (assuming that “chemtrails” allow you to do this) you will do two NEAT things:
1) You will PROVE that the Sun goes round the Earth.
2) You will BURN out your camera chip, and give us ALL a break…
Your talk is cheap…Provide a science book that explains how a jet trail coming from a jet already in flight can go on and off. You said: “trails” APPEAR TO BE “turned on and off” because THE PLANE FLIES “through layers of differing humidities” – Were you to attempt to PROPERLY UNDERSTAND THE ATMOSPHERE, you would soon see that that way the stratospheric layers slide over each other without intermixing” Where’s the science book that backs up your claim? Put up or shut up.

CHECK WIKI. STRATOSPHERE. There’s enough in that page for one to infer what I’ve told you. Work it out for yourself. I’ll be damned if I’ll lead you by the hand through the ONE PAGE after you have slandered me for six months. Perhaps your physics is too miserable to cope.. should I care? Alternatively: jazzroc.wordpress.com
CHECKMATE!!! The self-proclaimed 63 year old scientist, who when asked to provide a science book to back up his scientific claims about why a contrail appears to go on and off, can’t do it. The bottomline is you can’t do it because there is no science that backs up your bogus claim. Your defeated in the open field…Surrender your sword. Do the right thing now and tell ludosophist and the rest of the world why you have chosen to lie continously about the ongoing chemtrail spray program.

Mr. sophisticated game-player, I like your vid so much that I bunged it in my video log. Thanks very much! I DID cover off/on, several times and rather thoroughly. I also uncovered a “chemtrailer” airbrushing one into existence… and it’s a popular picture quoted in several vids…
AS WIKI (ON THE PAGE I INDICATED) SAYS: “It is stratified in temperature, with warmer layers higher up and cooler layers farther down, which makes the stratosphere dynamically stable”
THAT PAGE GOES ON TO SAY: “horizontal mixing of gases components proceeds much more rapidly than vertical mixing” – WHICH IS ANOTHER WAY OF SAYING THAT THE LAYERS WILL NATURALLY BE OF VARYING HUMIDITIES, BECAUSE THEY RECEIVE THEIR WATER FROM THEIR SIDES AND NOT FROM ABOVE OR BELOW. THEY ARE “HUMIDIFIED” MAINLY BY A PHENOMENON CALLED “QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION”. “The QBO induces a secondary circulation that is important for the global stratospheric transport of tracers such as ozone or water vapor”.
“bottomline is you can’t do it” WHOOPS “because there is no science that backs up your bogus claim” AND “You’re defeated in the open field…Surrender your sword.” AND “you have chosen to lie continously about the ongoing chemtrail spray program” ARE THUS THE WORDS OF A STUPID SLANDEROUS IDLE LAYABOUT WHO THINKS THAT OTHERS ARE AS LAZY AS HE IS, LACKING AS HE DOES THE IQ TO UNDERSTAND WHEN HE’S BEATEN (ONCE AGAIN).